"I do not want people to panic at this stage, says Jonathan Van Tam" - At. This. Stage. Right 'O
The government's response to the new 'Omicron' variant and why it probably won't save the Prime Minister, no matter how much he pretends to care
You probably couldn't get a more terrifying name for a new coronavirus variant than Omicron - for those old enough to remember the 80s or early 90s, and I do [barely], you'll remember Transformers.
Specifically, Transformers: The Movie featuring the planet-eating, robot cannibal, cyborg moon-thing Unicron.
Omicron shouldn't put the same level of fear and dread into individuals as Unicron might but obviously - as with any new variant that presents itself - it's fair to say that we should tread with caution until we know more about it.
It’s also fair to say that more is being done on the part of this government to mitigate the spread.
Sort of.
Surprisingly.
Alarmingly, perhaps.
Although ‘more’ is a relative term - discounting altruism, of course.
Disclaimer - This page doesn't 'do' science; or rather, pseudo-science - this page leaves it to experts that know more than I do who can speak with authority on such matters:
Independent SAGE
I would also direct towards this excellent read in the i Newspaper courtesy of Jane Merrick for a fascinating look at the origin of the ‘Omicron’ variant.
And this, too, from Prof. Devi Sridhar is excellent:
Politically, however, it seems we're once again falling down a rabbit hole of miscommunication and contradictory guidance, though with some cautious praise for what invariably has also been paradoxically branded an over-reaction whilst simultaneously described as Plan B Lite.
Such is the confusion and “uncertainty.”
Masks in shops but not in pubs... Huh, what?
The whole matter of masks is not really an issue for debate - it has been proven to be an effective measure to curb the spread, but politically it feels like the measures that have been introduced are somewhat of an ideological compromise; with the public.
Indeed, once again, effective measures are being stifled by a minority of backbenchers within the Conservatives who have always historically opposed measures.
Although any symbolic vote is expected to pass, it has always been a point of contention that Johnson has always received from the more so-called ‘libertarian’ wing from within his own party.
Coinciding with this, by the way, is a reported vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson being put forward by the SNP.
If true, would it likely pass? Probably not - and although the Conservatives may be concerned on the matter of reputational damage caused by an inordinate number of grievances the public have with the government, they’ll still likely have enough faith and confidence in their exalted leader [even though they don’t] to take us to the sunlit uplands.
[Wherever the hell they are at the minute]
The point being here is that if their anger towards Johnson is so hollow, and ultimately that Johnson is complacent in the knowledge that he would have their confidence regardless of his mismismanagement, there should be nothing preventing him from going further with measures.
In all likelihood, it’s because he probably chooses not to - and frankly, if it were totally up to Johnson, he’d have treated it like chicken pox and let the bodies pile high in their thousands, right?
So when it comes to a compromise - or conflicting guidance - on where you can wear masks, there’s an inherent and performative stupidity behind the decision to introduce masks in shops and on public transport but NOT in hospitality settings - such as pubs.
And when it comes to punitive measures, as always, where is the enforcement?
Currently, it’s being suggested that you can face fines of £200 for first offences of not following the guidance in the relevant settings, and anywhere up to £6,400 for continuing not to, but it’s hardly reassuring when varying accounts suggest low numbers for those who have ‘actually’ been fined.
So once again, it seems, it’s left to us, the do-gooders and Vigilantes of Covid Justice, to ‘dob in’ those who walk around Tescos mask-free only for them to respond with either abuse or say ‘I’m exempt’ as they did so often in the past without their respective eBay-bought lanyards.
And where those grifters from the ‘alt-media’ on Gbeebies are concerned, it begs the question whether or not when we see things like this being broadcast…
…maybe we should report it.
Alternatively, you have familiar idiots such as New Forest West Conservative MP Sir Desmond Swayne state, “I've decided I'm exempt from wearing a mask on the basis of my genetic predisposition to liberty”
Where the law clearly indicates you will be fined for not wearing a mask in certain areas, would it then be reasonable to report individuals like Sir Desmond Swayne so that they are prosecuted for inciting and enabling people to break the law?
Although it seems rather unlikely when leading the charge on ‘Mask scepticism’ is the Prime Minister himself who in the past month has been pictured without one.
In a hospital:
In a theatre:
On a crowded train:
Once again, this page finds itself saying, “language begins at the top.”
What’s the plan!?
Plan A, of course, was to more or less carry on blissfully unaware that anything is happening.
Plan B was the introduction of so-called “draconian measures” - including but not limited to face masks, but also working from home, which the Health Secretary Sajid Javid is not keen to implement; ignoring SAGE advice in the process.
What we will have from today, is neither A nor B, and where preparations are concerned - specifically preparations to deal with the emergence of potential vaccine-resistant Covid variants - the government has ignored them, too, according to former chair of vaccine taskforce Clive Dix.
Interestingly in his article for The Observer/Guardian, Clive Dix also highlighted the chaos of the government's dismissed contract with French company Valneva - as first highlighted on this page a month ago.
The government appears to be relying on boosters, which have been somewhat effective albeit with many concerns relating to take-up - noted on this page [see above] - and a private contact tracing system that, according to a damning report from the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, says:
“NHST&T has not achieved its main objective to help break chains of COVID-19 transmission and enable people to return towards a more normal way of life.”
“Its outcomes have been muddled and a number of its professed aims have been overstated or not achieved”
This despite its “eye watering” budget of £37 billion.
Where countries from the continent of Africa have been added to the so-called ‘red-list’, there have been confirmed cases [as of November 29] in Scotland, Nottingham and Essex, too - suggesting that community transmission is already in full swing - which comes as both Welsh minister Mark Drakeford and Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon have both written to the Prime Minister calling for tougher border restrictions.
Sadly, it’ll likely be ignored - actually, if future Leadership hopeful Liz Truss’ words are anything to go by, the letter already has?
Oh wait, yep! Clarity! It has - just like that.
But is the government getting it wrong?
What has been surprising about the government’s response to ‘Omicron’ is that it is probably the fastest they have acted - to their credit - but there is a danger in providing ‘too much’ credit when the bar was set so low to begin with, and with each response; be it to the original Covid-19, or even the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta or now ‘Omicron’ variant.
In contrast to their inaction leading to the various waves previously - and in the case of Delta, deliberate inaction to achieve a trade deal with India - this response to ‘Omicron’ could be perceived as positively heroic, although when you bear in mind physician Dr. Angelique Coetzee’s assessment of the virus [Andrew Marr/Nov. 28] insofar as patients with it experience “extremely mild symptoms”, there’s every risk the government’s perceived “over reaction” could be like bringing a holy hand grenade to a water fight.
But even Coetzee states - before we get complacent - “more time is needed” before we assess the seriousness of the virus, and as we saw with New Zealand or other countries that acted ‘fast and hard’, there probably is no such thing as too much of an over-reaction when the simple fact is we just don’t know enough - with varying accounts of transmissibility and its ability or inability to evade vaccines, and ultimately where cost to life may occur, and a “substantial uncertainty” according to the WHO itself.
Once again, I’d recommend information from Independent Sage on this matter.
I’d also recommend the words of Jonathan Van Tam, albeit with an ominous caveat.
Bah-weep-Graaaaagnah wheep ni ni bong
According to Transformers Wiki: “Bah-weep-Graaaaagnah wheep ni ni bong is the universal greeting [and] is used as a means to express good will toward alien beings when a language barrier is present. However, it does not always work that way.”
What is worth bearing in mind - politically - is that much of this happens against the backdrop of a Conservative Party that is visibly crumbling before our eyes.
This Thursday, for instance, there is a rather important byelection in the Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency that belonged to Conservative MP James Brokenshire who sadly died from cancer in October.
Although Brokenshire possessed a majority of over 19,000 votes in 2019, concerns from voters over the Prime Minister’s mismanagement may translate to the ballot box, with Conservative voters in the area saying they may turn to Labour for the first time as a result.
A similiar fate may befall the Conservatives in Owen Paterson’s constituency of North Shropshire, too.
On top of everything that has been experienced this past month, and even though we are not fully certain as to the severity of the Omicron variant, to be seen as dithering once again would be a critical error of political judgment.
So…
To be seen, on the other hand, as proactive or compassionate…
…to guarantee so much at this point and promise a “considerably better” Christmas than last might win a few fickle voters’ hearts and minds; to get that literal, metaphorical and figurative ‘boost’ before Christmas would ‘work’ politically for Johnson if he were even remotely interested in keeping his job
In many ways, with everything that has happened for the Conservatives this past month, ultimately it feels in certain respects that Johnson is attempting to recapture the spirit of the ‘Vaccine Bounce’ from earlier in the year; with an attempt to make a convincing case that the government, for once, are on top of it.
The question, I suppose, is whether or not voters believe it and forgive Johnson enough and in time for Christmas and into the Spring.
What exactly voters are left having to forgive Johnson for remains to be seen, but it’s probably wise “at this stage” not to panic, even if as a consequence of our vaccine apartheid, a new variant from the African continent has come back to bite us.
How hard, we can only wait and see, but in the meantime we place our faith in science and health professionals, and hope in each other to do the right thing - mainly because politicians like Boris Johnson often don’t.