‘Very much priced in to the death spiral’ - How the Conservatives went on a dummy run towards losing a national election

Having lived there previously and remaining quite close within the local proximity, a by-election in Wellingborough was always going to be of particular and somewhat personal interest.

The count for the vote itself took place in the Kettering Leisure Village, actually. Kettering itself serves as the administrative centre for all things glorious and North Northants for those wondering why it didn't happen in Wellingborough itself. It's a product of a merger of different local authorities following the Tory-run Northamptonshire County Council’s infamous descent into bankruptcy.

Interestingly -

The Leisure Village where the vote count was being held has been subject to much discussion over its own sustainability in recent times. It is another unwitting victim to the cost-of-living crisis that - despite being a cornerstone of the community and serving as a venue for… well, basically everything indoor sports-related and more, including acting as the National Volleyball Centre complete with outdoor beach volleyball court […in Kettering] - spent much of last year on the precipice of closure before the primarily council-run facility was shuffled into the hands of private investment and saw exorbitant price increases.

It’s a story that likely reverberates throughout many local authorities right now, with more and more on the brink of declaring Section 114 notices, looking towards drastic, cost-effective solutions [like asset stripping] as trade-offs to cover the shortfall in budgets allocated for essentials - like social care or childcare provision, for example.

Wellingborough itself, just down the A509, is also the sort of place that shares a similar story of national decline.

Indeed, as noted previously, you need only visit the Conservative Party headquarters to find a suitable metaphor for neglect. It looks abandoned, in fact. Outside, the sorry picture of a Volkswagen Passat, flat tyres and filled with junk - it has sat there for months, unmoved, undisturbed, and just left to collect bird droppings, mulch and leaves.

An equally fitting metaphor, perhaps, is that the building itself stands beside what used to be a reptile shop. 

I’ve been following the movements of different parties in the area since as early as October when I wrote about previous Conservative Party defeats in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire, and spoke about former Wellingborough MP Peter Bone in context of those defeats. 

The report into Bone’s conduct - which recommended a 6-week suspension following allegations of bullying, abuse of power and sexual misconduct - was revealed in the same week as those by-elections. 

Following a vote later in October, a recall petition was triggered, which then - among some bitter warblings, noise and screams of persecution, disbelief and outrage from Bone himself, including the actual belief [in Bone’s head] that because only 13% voted to trigger the by-election, that must mean 87% approved of him - ultimately concluded with the result we saw on Friday morning. 

Even before then, however, Labour [and Reform] had swarmed on the Northamptonshire constituency, with campaigning, canvassing and general ‘door knockery’ beginning as early as November. Labour itself created an entirely new constituency office to celebrate the occasion in the ‘vibrant’ centre of town in what used to be, I believe, an employment recruitment office, wedged between vape shops, estate agents and a “Thai spa.”

Things could obviously only get better. Many Labour MPs - around 100, according to the various bits of paper on the walls carrying their signatures - seem to think so; the campaign, extensive; the candidate, Gen Kitchen, extremely positive.

And yet - 

A remarkable feature of this by-election - and others over the last several years, with the notable exception of Uxbridge & South Ruislip - is the scarcity of any major campaign or attempt on the part of the Conservatives to contest what should have been a very safe, very Blue, very Home Counties and “Thai spa” sort of seat. 

The night prior to the vote count, a Conservative spokesperson said that they had performed “robust campaigns”. 

They hadn’t, and the fact that they hadn’t was a rather large part of the problem.

There had been no major local drive for the candidate [Helen Harrison] over the last several months, and the area has seen a dearth of Conservative activity and national party presence, to the extent that finding enough spirit from any Conservative prepared to support the party in the area would have probably required a ouija board.