‘Oblivion.’ - It’s simple: nothing has changed and the Conservatives are still on course for a major defeat at the next election
The mood was said to be “chipper” inside Downing St. as it head into this week, facing the preparations for the upcoming local elections, mayoral elections and a by-election in Blackpool South. The ominous signs for how Sunak's week might turn out began immediately with the defection of Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP Dan Poulter from Conservative to Labour.
Poulter’s defection was by no means a seismic event, however. It was just another in a long line of small tremors that rumble away beneath the surface of the Conservative Party like a persistent, though barely noticeable stream eroding the bedrock of power.
The justification for his defection was nothing exceptional either. Poulter was correct when he spoke about the Conservative Party's drift to the Far Right though appears hypocritical when discussing the effects that his party’s policy has had on the NHS despite representing it in Parliament for the last 14 years.
It's worth remembering, however, for any criticism of Poulter, that he didn't defect on the basis of some kind of cynical self-preservation. He is not intending to stand for Labour in the next election.
Poulter is standing aside as an MP altogether, as many MPs - mainly from the Conservative Party - are doing so, and in the process are looking set to lose over 1,000 years of experience.
The depature of scores of MPs represents a creeping apathy that has been evolving for some time within the Conservative Party, and can be seen at a base grassroots level. It is contagious, in fact, and ‘the apathy strain’ has become so virulent that it has ebbed its way into almost every local campaign.
Many of the loyal remaining Conservatives have found very few activists willing to help them pound the streets and drum up support in many local areas around the country - as spoken about previously:
‘Disheartened, deflated, and dejected’: The death spiral continues and the Conservatives are on a distinct losing streak that’s too difficult to ignore
Former Conservative MP for Blackpool South Scott Benton wrote to Jeremy Hunt last week requesting that he be appointed to the role of Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds. Doing so disqualified Benton from the Commons with immediate effect - meaning, he’d resigned his position, although not directly, and that as a consequence it would trigger a by-election by default.
The prevailing sentiment among local campaigners is one of profound despair, in fact.
Many grassroots Tories venturing beyond their constituency offices to campaign in the local elections walk the streets with an overwhelming anxiety. There is a reluctance, and a sense of shame about admitting that you are a Conservative in 2024. Many feel rightly so.