Make a Nuisance of Yourselves—And Then Resign: Or, 'How culture wars don't collect the bins'

Reform UK’s expected performance in the local elections might finally reveal the limits of populist politics—one missed dog poo bin collection at a time.

One of the dominant narratives likely to emerge from next week's local election results is the latest extinction-level event for the Conservative Party—an annual spectacle that first took shape in 2022 and has become a recurring feature of the political calendar ever since.

Between 2022 and 2024, the Conservatives lost approximately 1,500 councillors, signalling a dramatic erosion of their local political base. This decline has not only reduced their presence in councils across the country but has also hampered their grassroots campaigning capacity.

The sharp drop in councillor numbers has led to a thinning of volunteer networks and weakened local campaign infrastructure—raising serious concerns within the party about its preparedness for forthcoming national contests. In 2025, the Conservatives face the daunting task of defending over 1,000 of the roughly 1,600 seats up for grabs. They could lose hundreds.

Many of these were won in the 2021 elections during the so-called "vaccine bounce" under Boris Johnson’s leadership. That period now represents something of a high-water mark—setting a baseline that will be difficult to match, let alone exceed, in the face of shifting political winds.

Adding to the party’s woes are internal divisions and a deepening identity crisis. Leadership churn, muddled messaging, and strategic confusion have fractured the party’s coherence, making it increasingly difficult to project a unified vision to voters.

At the same time, the British electorate itself appears more fragmented than at any point in recent memory.

The Liberal Democrats are mounting an aggressive campaign in middle class, affluent, rural and coastal areas, seeking to tap into widespread discontent over crumbling local services, environmental decline, and general political disillusionment. Their efforts are underpinned by strong fundraising and a clear strategic aim: to become the second-largest party in local government.

This broader voter fragmentation is also creating opportunities for smaller parties. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are gaining traction by focusing on tangible local and national issues. For the Green Party in particular, anticipated success in the 2025 local elections is expected to come from an effective blend of targeted campaigning, widespread disillusionment, progressive appeal, and a well-organised grassroots operation.

Voter dissatisfaction is similarly boosting the prospects of Reform UK, which is positioning itself as a serious contender—particularly in traditional Tory heartlands such as Lincolnshire and parts of the Midlands.

Reform’s strategy hinges on harnessing voter frustration, deploying resonant messaging in Conservative strongholds, and expanding into Labour-dominated areas in the North and so-called Red Wall regions, including Doncaster and Durham.

Among all the challengers, Reform is widely expected to make the most significant gains, primarily by siphoning disaffected Conservative voters. Yet this ambitious outlook has been complicated by a recurring theme centred around the word ‘cleanliness’—or the lack thereof.

As discussed in previous pieces, Reform’s campaign since the start of the year has been far from a model of professionalism. Quite the opposite, in fact:

If anything, it has frequently illustrated exactly how not to run an election campaign.