‘Nothing would be more terrifying for Farage than winning’: A look ahead to 2025 and why Reform's 'surge' is both a myth and a potential reality

Normally at the end of every year, I give a review of events that have happened over the last twelve months.

This article is different. It speaks about what may be to come in 2025.

For 2024, the general election was obviously the most important political event of the year and the articles I wrote to cover it (here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here) themselves contain a lot of context and information that describe how we have arrived at this point in British politics of almost complete disillusionment.

Indeed, the key question asked in the first article published when Labour entered government, and the last article of my election coverage was: ‘what now?’

It’s a question that resonates as we exit 2024 and transition into 2025.

Domestically, Labour have been beset with many issues, some of which I noted in my previous piece and have covered since around August:

One of the issues that Labour has as the government enters 2025 is the party’s “fragile” support ebbing away and with disaffected voters eloping to other parties.

Worse still for the government, the argument is centred around how other parties simply appeal more to disaffected voters that either never supported the government in the first place, or feel disappointed by it.

In this case, if the “threat” as established by the trajectory of current trends in polling and the media is anything to judge, the greatest of all is the “threat” posed by Nigel Farage and the Reform Party - although for sake of clarity, I use the term “party” extremely loosely in Reform’s case.

Incidentally, reading some of the polls and the blanket coverage of Reform’s “threat” in itself is interesting.

Consider that due to the fundamental nature of Reform’s appeal, and the bubble of conspiratorial thought usually resigned to social media in which, coincidentally, its supporters tend to occupy, both the media and the polls are often met with a degree of scepticism and suspicion by Reform supporters.

That is -

Until it fulfils the criteria that ultimately bolsters Reform supporters’ cognitive bias, in which case ‘those’ polls and ‘that’ legacy media are conveniently no longer greeted with suspicion, and the news reported by the mainstream media about the ‘surge’ in support for Reform, and the methodology behind how polls collect their data, is completely sound.

That’s how it works.

These judgements aside, is it worth entertaining the possibility that the ‘threat’ is real and the data is kosher? It shouldn’t be discounted, but it assumes many things.

The first is that as a result of how disaffected voters feel, the job in gaining support (and certainly enough to form a government) will be easy for Reform.

It will not be, although Labour should not allow complacency to set in - not least because Labour, of all parties, should understand what it is like to win a huge majority off the back of offering few meaningful alternatives while finding a growing list of enemies among marginal groups in society.

Reform has this problem, too, although its myriad of problems - at least so far as professionalism and legitimacy are concerned, as well as offering any meaningful alternatives - are far worse.

Not a week goes by where there isn’t some controversy that is designed to ‘outrage and engage’ people people (usually on social media) that underlines the fundamental lack of seriousness by which Reform would ultimately govern if given half the chance.

Lee Anderson exemplifies this phenomenon, and it aligns with Reform's purpose to explore how public engagement and the weekly trend of making the most controversial - and often absurd - statements drive discourse. This process seems deliberate, gradually normalising the perception of Anderson as a harmless or hapless fool, rather than recognising him as a calculated, shape-shifting figure whose actions are influenced and financially supported by the shifting winds of the American Right

Not that foreign interference is a concern for its supporters, of course - like freedom of speech and the right to criticism, it is selective. Foreign interference (and money) across Reform’s power structure is absolutely fine so long as it aligns with whatever Reform’s fickle, populist, ever-changing policies are from one week to the next.

Many variables need to be considered before we look at how Reform could make any marked progress, of course.

One of main considerations for them is that the next election has been pencilled in for 2029.

On one hand, this gives Reform the opportunity to mobilise and, importantly, 'professionalise,' though this carries its own risks. Reform’s appeal lies in its distinct charm, which it risks losing if it becomes overly polished or refined. On the other hand, if the party continues its current trajectory of scandals and controversies, it increases the likelihood of missteps that could alienate even the more moderate or sensible voters who might otherwise consider supporting them.

And -

There are a lot of people it needs to fulfil their ultimate goal of commanding a majority in Parliament, which, from the foundation of having a modest five MPs, is, to put it simply, virtually impossible.

None of it should discount the possibility that the “party” (that is not a party; it’s a limited company) could eat itself alive in any event. ‘Membership’ is not membership in the more official sense. It is comprised of - they say - 110,000 shareholders, and where centralised control is ultimately handed to the majority shareholder - in this case, Nigel Farage.

This structure limits ‘member’ participation in the decision-making processes. This in itself undermines the fundamental tenet of control and democracy that is central to Reform’s ideology.

Moreover -

Despite its ambitions, Reform’s organisational framework may not be robust enough to challenge established political entities effectively as it struggles in making the transition from becoming a protest movement to a viable political force.

Since the election, Nigel Farage has been concentrating his efforts into changing this perspective by ‘professionalising’ Reform.

There is another reason for this: it is because the part-time member for Clacton has become acutely aware to the possibility that many in the real world outside of the X and TikTok bubbles think Reform is… a bit weird.

Although there’s a bit more to it than that.