You win some, ULEZ some: A truly bad night for the Conservatives and nothing, no matter how small the window, will prevent what awaits them

Since mid-June when three by-elections were confirmed to take place on the same day in July, the mood within the government has been decidedly “gloomy”. 

A sense of defeatism has enveloped the Conservative Party and most recently, MPs admitted that they “were resigned” to three losses. Others were saying that even winning one was merely “an outside chance.”

Rishi Sunak himself said that achieving a victory in all three would be “difficult” and expectation management prior to the elections from sources close to the Prime Minister indicated that if the Conservatives won, it would be down to “a miracle.” 

Alternately, if they lost, it was because they were expected to, though nobody would quite know the margin of loss, or how to manage the outcome if it was particularly ‘bad’ - and whether or not the expected loss could be minimised and merely ‘shrugged off’.

That we’re talking about ‘miracles’ of Conservatives winning at all, of course, or of the expectations of Conservative losing seats such as Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, is the point. 

Winning in these seats should not be miraculous or an ‘outside chance’, and losses should be inconceivable.