A Hideous Distraction - How Sunak lost the Rwanda vote despite winning, and why the optics of dysfunction probably matter more

Aside from the fact that it's a hideous distraction away from what most voters care about [NHS, economy, cost of living…], and the fact the government has no real solutions for those things either, one of the reasons why the so-called Safety of Rwanda is so frustrating for voters is because it appears to be reigniting the same debates and opening the same wounds leftover from Brexit. 

It even comes complete with its assorted list of ridiculous characters, too - like Mark Francois.

For a period of time, Francois was one of the most prominent voices of the Brexit debate and then when the UK ‘got Brexit done’ - though it remains questionable exactly what the benefits of having left the EU actually are - he, along with many of the familiar face at the time sort of disappeared into the ether of politics.  

Earlier this year, Francois, the ERG, it's allies and its self-anointed “Star Chamber” of lawyers and experts reemerged from their crypt to argue against the Windsor Framework - if anybody remembers that. 

Very much like the government’s so-called Safety of Rwanda Bill, the government’s Windsor Framework never passed the ERG sniff test. Amid some internal wranglings featuring the likes of Liz Truss, Boris Johnson and Priti Patel, it became one of the first major tests of Sunak’s leadership mettle. 

Sunak, for what it’s worth, succeeded; he faced off against his internal foes and despite suffering losses of 22 dissenting MPs, ultimately - with considerable help from opposition parties - he won. 

It's more or less the same predicament the government faced again on Tuesday night when their so-called Safety of Rwanda Bill passed the second reading stage in the Commons albeit with considerably less support from opposition parties though with back-up from the utterly spineless One Nation caucus of Tories. 

Up until December 2023, the Windsor Framework was one of the few things Sunak has achieved during his premiership that anybody can give him credit for - even if, evidently, it has not provided food for thought for the perpetual grievance squad over on the other side of the Irish Sea in the form of the DUP.

But - 

The broader context of what Sunak’s win signified at the time was more important: after the vote, the ERG and the persistent moaners inside Westminster on this side of the Irish Sea were essentially silenced, and they have been licking their wounds waiting for that opportune moment to strike back at Sunak ever since.

The problem for Sunak is that over the last year, he has escalated what the right-wing within the party perceive as attacks: they came on economic policy, they came on immigration policy, and they came on cabinet appointments [and dismissals]. 

Each attack, the right-wing perceived, was harder than the last and culminated with the sacking of their “Queen” Suella Braverman; in context of the Windsor Framework, it was a managerial decision that people could also give Sunak some credit for.

Though not too much because - obviously - it could also be argued that he should have never reappointed her as Home Secretary in the first place. Sunak spent a year avoiding sacking her when he had countless opportunities to do so - despite her compulsive incompetence. 

In any case - 

With immigration policy, which has become increasingly more desperate [and absurd] with each passing month, Sunak has managed to unite the various factions against him; a so-called [and self-anointed] ‘Five Families’ of far right Conservatives, the numbers of which are anywhere between 20 and 80 MPs, perpetually annoyed, implacable, retentive, and constantly looking for something to moan about, have found a wedge. 

More importantly - it seems that they've found the numbers, too.