'The plan is... working?' - with equal parts desperation, delusion and denial, the Conservative Party shuffles on
Many, I suspect, will look at Rishi Sunak’s political tombstone and it will read ‘detached from reality’ carved into the granite.
Think back: the date was April 23.
The day after holding a press conference designed to put pressure on the Lords to pass the government’s post-truth Safety of Rwanda Bill, Rishi Sunak was on a flight to Warsaw to meet with fellow NATO members and to make a flagship announcement on defence expenditure.
The intention was to placate members angry with Sunak [and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt] as a result of the threadbare budget announcement earlier in the Spring that saw government spending in the sector cut by £2.5 billion.
These two stories - in addition to Sunak’s own pledges to end Britain’s apparent “sicknote culture” with punitive measures designed to weed out and target benefits claimants, and some of the nation’s most vulnerable people - left Sunak feeling “buoyant” for what he perceived as a hat-trick of victories.
Just one short week later, YouGov revealed a poll that indicated the national voting intention had the Conservatives at the lowest point since Theresa May was in the death throes of her premiership; even lower than when Liz Truss left office after less than 50 days in power.
By the end of the week, the Conservatives had been hideously disfigured by the results in the local elections. Hundreds of councillors lost and many councils either changed hands or lost to no overall control. Crucial mayoral contests were lost, they saw nearly a dozen PCCs shift, and there was a “seismic” by-election loss that saw the 4th largest swing to any party since the Second World War.
My article covering the local elections in a bit more detail is here:
‘Oblivion.’ - It’s simple: nothing has changed and the Conservatives are still on course for a major defeat at the next election
The mood was said to be “chipper” inside Downing St. as it head into this week, facing the preparations for the upcoming local elections, mayoral elections and a by-election in Blackpool South. The ominous signs for how Sunak's week might turn out began immediately with the defection of Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP Dan Poulter from Conservative to Labour.
To Rishi Sunak, this was all a mystery.
To more rational-minded Conservatives, however, it was not.